DYMEX模型在棉铃虫种群动态中的应用

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摘要

模型模擬是昆虫种群动态研究的重要内容，DYMEX模型是一种基于同生群概念的机理性模型，能够较真实、全面地模拟多因素影响下的种群动态，便于推广应用。棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera自然种群动态受到诸多生态因子的影响，如气候、天敌和田间管理等，过程复杂。本文利用DYMEX 3.0软件建立了棉铃虫种群动态模型，对实验室棉铃虫种群关键生命表参数随温度变化和控制条件下杀虫剂对棉铃虫和天敌的毒杀作用分别进行了模拟；对新疆石河子121团和147团2009-2014年棉铃虫自然种群动态进行了模拟，并比较和分析了模拟结果。结果表明：（1）建立的棉铃虫DYMEX模型，在模拟实验室棉铃虫种群各阶段发育历期、存活率、成虫繁殖和寿命，以及杀虫剂对棉铃虫卵、1～3龄幼虫和天敌的毒杀影响方面，拟合优度R2普遍高于0.6（P<0.05）；（2）模拟田间条件下棉铃虫种群的相对发生量和发生期与实际自然种群具有较好的一致性。因此，建立的DYMEX模型，较可靠地模拟、反映了室内控制条件和复杂生境下棉铃虫种群特征和动态，为棉铃虫室内多因素试验结果分析、因素效能分析和复杂条件下发生期和相对发生量的预测预报等方面提供有效帮助，为田间害虫的综合管理、防治提供参考。

关键词

棉铃虫；种群动态；DYMEX模型；预测预报；害虫综合管理

中图分类号：

S 435.62， S 431.9

文献标识码：A

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.05291542.2017.06.004

Simulation modelling of the population dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera

（Hübner） （Lepidoptera： Noctuidae） using DYMEX

Gu Shimin1，2，Myron P.Zalucki3，Zhang Bao4，Liu Yongjian5，Lü Zhaozhi1

（1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography， Chinese Academy of Sciences， Urumqi830011， China；2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences， Beijing100049， China； 3. School of Biological Sciences，The University of Queensland， Brisbane4072， Australia； 4. The 147th Plant Protection Station of AgriculturalDepartment in Xinjiang， Shihezi832045， China； 5. The 121th Production and Construction Corps AgriculturalTechnology Extension Station in Xinjiang， Shihezi832066， China）

Abstract

Simulation modelling can contribute to our understanding of insect population dynamics and pest management. DYMEX model was a kind of mechanism model based on the concept of cohorts， which allowed the model to be more realistic in simulating population dynamics affected by multifactors and to be popularized. The population dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera is influenced by many factors such as climate， natural enemies and agricultural practices， making modeling and simulation of population abundance and phenology difficult. In this study， DYMEX version 3.0 software was used to build a model of H.armigera. （1） Simulations were consistent with experimental results （the R2 were above 0.6 and the Pvalue were less than 0.05） for cotton bollworm developmental time， survivorship of immature stages and progeny production and longevity of female as influenced by different temperatures and pesticide effects. （2） Simulation of population relative abundance and phenology were consistent with field monitoring data. The DYMEX model of H.armigera can be used to study population dynamics under various scenarios and help us analyze lab experimental results， understand the contribution of various factors to population changes and make forecasts of population dynamics and so better serve pest management.

推荐访问:棉铃虫 种群 模型 动态 DYMEX